Contrary to popular belief, global autism rates don’t appear to be climbing.
That’s the topline takeaway from an intensive investigation in the “Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021,” which also offers new insight into our understanding of the condition.
“In 2021, one in 127 people globally was estimated to have autism, significantly higher than the GBD estimates from 2019 (one in 271),” wrote Tony Charman, with the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience, at King’s College London, in the latest issue of The Lancet. “The authors found no evidence of an increase in prevalence across a 15-year time window. This conclusion contrasts with U.K. and U.S. studies based on administrative estimates or systematic record reviews reporting a rise in autism prevalence in the past two decades.”
What They Did Find
As Charman mentioned, the data shows that, in 2021, about one out of 127 people worldwide has autism. That works out to an estimated total of 61.8 million people.
- The global prevalence was 788.3 per 100,000 people.
- Twice as many men received an autism diagnosis than women.
- And autism ranked among the top ten causes of non-fatal health burden of those under 20 – showing just how much the diagnosis shapes the lives of younger patients.
The study revealed that the prevalence and health burden of autism persisted across lifespans, beginning early in childhood and tapering off among older groups.
Notably, the prevalence varied widely by region, with higher rates reported in high-income Asia-Pacific areas, such as South Korea and Japan, compared to more tropical regions, such as Latin America.
Methodological Advances
Earlier estimates typically relied on passive case-finding methods, which appears to have undercounted autism prevalence because of limited data from administrative and educational records.
For GBD 2021, researchers omitted these methods, and instead pulled from new data sources, including active case-finding studies that provide better prevalence rates.
The researchers also made revisions to disability weight estimations — a key component of health burden calculations — which helped improve the final tally.
While the updates to the methodology certainly account for the sizable jump in estimated autism rates, the estimates remain conservative compared to some national reports, such as 2020 CDC data that suggests one in 36 children were autistic.
Policy Implications
The findings expose notable healthcare and policy gaps autistic individuals. The persistence of autism’s health burden throughout one’s life demands tailored support services. Early intervention programs, such as developmental and behavioral therapies, could also boost outcomes for younger autistic individuals.
For adults, the study emphasizes the importance of services promoting independence, including life skills training and employment support.
Unfortunately, many autistic individuals, especially those in low- and middle-income countries, face significant barriers to accessing essential services.
Challenges and Future Directions
Despite advancements, the researchers concede the data isn’t without its share of shortcomings, such as sparse epidemiological data in many regions and a lack of representation among adult populations.
Additionally, the paper’s authors couldn’t reconcile the intersection of autism with gender diversity or co-occurring health conditions. As a result, they urge further research.
The study also underscored the elevated risk of premature mortality among autistic individuals, particularly from suicide. And the existing health burden estimates fail to consider that. In 2021, for example, the data revealed that an estimated 13,400 excess suicide deaths worldwide could be tied to autism.
Overall, the findings call for a more coordinated approach to support early diagnosis efforts, expand support systems, and tackle care disparities. As we better understand autism burdens and prevalence, we could help shape more informed strategies to improve the quality of life for autistic individuals worldwide.
Further Reading
4 Distinct Autism Subtypes Identified in Machine Learning Study
Siblings With Autism Share More of Father’s DNA, Not Mother’s
Management of Individuals With Autism Spectrum Disorder in Clinical Settings
